Flying Over Russia: Should You Avoid Airlines That Do It?

Some airlines are still flying over Russia on routes between Europe and Asia, and while there are certain risks to be aware of, it is not necessarily dangerous.

Flying over Russia

Although most European airlines now avoid Russian airspace due to safety risks or overflight bans, several major international airlines still operate in the skies above Russia.

First and foremost, Chinese airlines are still flying over Russia on most of their routes between China and Europe.

This gives them a competitive advantage over European airlines, which must take long detours to avoid Russian airspace when flying to countries such as China, South Korea and Japan, often adding two or three hours to the total flight duration.

It also means that Chinese airlines can undercut their European competitors by offering cheaper fares, as their planes not only use less fuel on the shorter flight paths over Russia, but can also be used more efficiently by operating more flights in a certain timeframe.

This is clearly seen when comparing the flight paths between Shanghai and London, where Air China can fly the short and efficient great circle route over Russia, while British Airways must take a much longer route over Kazakhstan and the Caucasus.

Plane shootdowns

When discussing whether it is safe to fly through Russian airspace, people often refer to MH17, the Malaysia Airlines flight that was shot down in 2014 by a Russian Buk surface-to-air missile over eastern Ukraine.

MH17 was far from unique, as similar incidents have occurred many times before.

In recent years alone, there was Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2 8243, which was severely damaged after being hit by a Russian missile while approaching Grozny Airport in the Russian region of Chechnya.

It later crashed while attempting an emergency landing in Kazakhstan, having been refused permission to land at closer Russian airports.

In 2020, Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 was shot down shortly after departing Tehran by two Tor M-1 surface-to-air missiles fired by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Looking further back, the most high-profile cases were Korean Air Lines flight KE007 in 1983, which was shot down by a Su-15 fighter with air-to-air missiles after it accidentally entered Soviet airspace, and Iran Air flight IR655, which was shot down while flying over the Strait of Hormuz by a missile fired from the American missile cruiser USS Vincennes.

Risks of overflying Russia: missile attacks

Even though hat means that three high-profile airline shootdowns involved the Russian Army, it’s not an exclusive Russian affair.

Simply put – whenever a plane flies over an active conflict zone, or through the airspace or near the borders of a country on high alert for possible incursions by drones, enemy aircraft or other threats, there is always a small risk of it being shot down.

Statistically, however, that risk is low, as major incidents involving well-known airlines occur only once every few years or even decades, while tens of thousands of flights take off every day.

It’s worth noting that almost all of these shootdowns occur due to commercial planes being misidentified, breakdowns in the chain of command, failures to follow normal procedures, or other forms of reckless behaviour by military commanders or soldiers.

Even though this does not mean the planes were deliberately targeted, the responsibility still lies clearly with the party that shot them down, which in the two most recent incidents – MH17 and J2 8243 – rests solely with Russia.

Although many European airlines are currently banned from flying over Russia, other airlines that are technically allowed to overfly the country have chosen not to, due to the slight – but very real – risk of incidents like these.

Among others, Asian airlines such as Korean Air, Singapore Airlines, and Asiana have voluntarily chosen not to overfly Russia on their flights at present.

Emergency landing

There are more potential risks to overflying Russia than being shot down by a missile, one of which many passengers may not immediately be aware.

In the event of an emergency in Russian airspace – whether a technical issue with the plane or a medical emergency involving a passenger – there is a chance the aircraft would need to divert and land at the nearest airport, which would be on Russian territory.

Most recently, this occurred with an Air China flight from London Heathrow to Beijing, which was forced to make an emergency landing in Nizhnevartovsk, Siberia, due to a technical problem.

In the worst case, this can result in a lengthy stay on the ground in Russia, as the plane may not be immediately repairable.

A similar situation can occur during a diversion for a medical emergency, as the pilots may reach their legally allowed duty limit and be unable to continue flying until they have taken the required rest.

In such situations, it is not uncommon for passengers to be forced to spend many hours, or even a day or two, on the ground until a new crew or a replacement aircraft can be brought in.

Are emergency landings in Russia a risk?

First and foremost, visiting Russia is currently not recommended for anyone from an EU or NATO country, as there are real risks of arbitrary arrest and being used as a pawn by Putin to exert political pressure, secure concessions, or facilitate a possible prisoner exchange.

I have always enjoyed visiting Russia, but right now is clearly not the best time, both for safety and moral reasons.

However, I do think there is a slight nuance, as the risks are much lower if you are forced to spend a day or two in Russia due to an emergency landing, particularly if it occurs on a Chinese airline.

Given Russia’s geopolitical and economic dependence on China, I believe the chances of them arbitrarily arresting a Western passenger on a Chinese airline are close to zero.

Such an action would anger China and seriously undermine the advantage Chinese airlines currently hold over their European counterparts, as Western passengers would think twice before booking flights with Air China, China Southern, Hainan Airlines, or any other Chinese carrier.

Indeed, in all previous cases of planes being forced to make an emergency landing in Russia, passengers have been accommodated – either in temporary shelters within part of the terminal or, more rarely, in proper hotels outside the airport, when the authorities allowed exemptions from normal visa requirements.

There are other airlines that still overfly Russia on routes between Europe and Asia, such as Uzbekistan Airways, and although Uzbekistan does not hold the same political clout over Russia as China, I believe that in the event of an emergency landing you would still be safe.

Risk assessment 

In the end, it is up to each individual passenger to decide whether the slight risks of overflying Russia are worth taking.

Statistically, the chances of an incident happening are extremely low, but there are still risks when flying over Russia, and it is always wise to be aware of them before deciding which airline to book.

If you are unsure whether the airline you plan to fly with uses Russian airspace on its route to Asia, it is a good idea to check previous flight paths by entering the flight number on FlightRadar24, which shows how the plane has flown that route on past days.

Conclusion

Although many airlines avoid flying over Russia due to safety risks, some continue to do so.

If you fly with an airline from the European Union (EU), the UK, the US, Canada, Australia, Japan, or Taiwan, you do not need to worry about flying over Russia, as these airlines are banned from using Russian airspace.

However, some airlines, particularly those from China, still overfly Russia on their routes between China and Europe.

There is a slight risk of a plane being shot down when flying over Russia or near its borders, as most recently occurred with Malaysia Airlines and Azerbaijan Airlines, and somewhat earlier with a Korean Air flight.

Another slight risk to be aware of when flying with an airline that uses Russian airspace is that a medical emergency or technical problem could lead to a diversion to an airport in Russia, potentially resulting in a lengthy unplanned stay until the issue is resolved or a replacement plane and crew are brought in.

Although the statistical likelihood of an incident is very small, it is something to keep in mind when choosing an airline, and ultimately it is up to each passenger to assess these risks for themselves.